The Daily Briefing
The biggest moves in prediction markets, summarized.
Hormuz Blockade Lingers
Markets are increasingly skeptical of a rapid resolution to the Strait of Hormuz blockade. The probability of President Trump announcing its lift by May 31 has plummeted 16% to 24%, with similar drops for earlier dates. The consensus now leans towards the blockade remaining in effect past June 30, with that timeline still holding at 61%, though even that saw a slight dip, suggesting continued uncertainty around the exact timing of de-escalation.
Editorial image · Generated daily to anchor the lead story.
President Trump's China Visit Imminent
President Trump's visit to China appears all but confirmed, with market confidence for a May 13, 2026, trip soaring by an astonishing 35% to 94%. This dramatic surge suggests significant behind-the-scenes developments pointing to an imminent high-stakes diplomatic engagement. The meeting will undoubtedly be a focal point for global relations and trade discussions.
WTI Crude Surges Amidst Tensions
Expectations for higher WTI Crude Oil prices in May are on the rise, likely influenced by the ongoing Strait of Hormuz situation. The probability of WTI hitting $110 this month is up 7% to 47%, with increasing confidence also seen for the $120 and $130 thresholds. This indicates a market bracing for sustained energy market volatility.
US-Iran Diplomacy Stalls
The path to direct US-Iran diplomatic engagement appears increasingly uncertain. Markets have seen a significant 9% drop in the likelihood of a meeting in Pakistan, now at 58%, while the probability of no qualifying diplomatic meeting occurring by June 30, 2026, has surged by 9% to 34%. This suggests a hardening of positions or a lack of viable negotiation channels in the near term.
Iranian Airspace Closure Odds Fluctuate
Hormuz Traffic Normalcy Unlikely by May's End
Hormuz Traffic Normalcy Unlikely by June's End
Kristersson's Swedish PM Prospects Dim
June 30 US-Iran Nuclear Deal Unlikely
Fed Rate Cut Expected Later in 2026
Anthropic Leads AI Model Race for June
Daniel Ennis Favored in Dublin-Central By-Election
Gemini 3.5 Release by June 30 Gains Traction
Discord IPO Unlikely by June, Sub-$15B Market Cap Seen
Greg Hull Surges in NM Governor Primary
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Warship Deployments to Hormuz by May 31 Seen as Low
Israeli Airspace Closure by May 31 Gains Odds
Dooley Gains on Collins in Georgia Senate Race
Trump's Concessions to Iran by May 31 Seen Unlikely
Becerra, Hilton Lead California Governor Primary
Iranian Uranium Enrichment Halt by May 31 Fades
May 31 US-Iran Nuclear Deal Prospects Dim
Trump-Macron Call Nearly Certain in May
Hormuz Ship Transit Volumes Expected to Remain Low
De La Espriella Leads Colombian Presidential Race
NVIDIA Poised to Be Largest Company by June's End
Anthropic Favored for Best AI Model in June
Gold Price Forecasts Adjust Downwards for June
Which company has the best AI model end of May?
Silver Price Projections Shift for June's End
NVIDIA Likely Largest Company by May's End
Epstein Suicide Note Release by May 31 Unlikely
Ukraine Ceasefire Agreement by June 30 Gains Traction
Spencer Pratt Gains in LA Mayoral Race
Begich Leads Alaska Governor Race
Russian Capture of Huliaipole by May 31 Rises
Trump AG Announcement by June 30 Uncertain
Israeli Forces Crossing Litani River by June 30 Expected
Choo Kyung-ho Favored in Daegu Mayoral Race
Anthropic Expected to Be Second Best AI by June
Gemini 3.2 Release By May 22 Highly Likely
S&P 500 (SPY) Highs Projected for May
Bottoms Favored in Georgia Democratic Primary
Russian Entry into Orikhiv by June 30 Seen Unlikely
Silver Prices Expected Above $85 by June End
Waymo Set for Nashville Launch by June 30
10-Year Treasury Yield Drop Below 3.5% Less Likely
ECB Rate Hike Expected in June 2026
S&P 500 (SPX) Highs Projected for June
NVIDIA (NVDA) Anticipated to Reach $240 in May
Kessler Dominates WV Democratic Senate Primary
Russian Entry into Novooleksandrivka by May 31 Less Likely
Gas Prices Expected to Reach $4.60 by May End
Tesla (TSLA) Price Dip to $375 Less Likely in May
Crude Oil (CL) Expected Over $75 by June End
Ukraine Security Guarantees by June 30 Remain Unlikely
Gemini 3.2 Release Set for May 19
Alphabet Poised as Second Largest by May End
Bank of England Likely Holds Rates in June
Martella Solidifies Lead in Venice Mayoral Race
Bilzerian's FL-06 Primary Chances Dim
OpenAI Leads in Math AI Model by May End
May Expected to Be Eventful
Russian Capture of Hryshyne by May 31 Less Likely
Anthropic Claude Model 50% FrontierMath Score by June
Powell's Departure by May 16 Highly Expected
Russian Entry into Vasylivka by May 31 Less Likely
Trump AI Model Review by May 31 Seen Unlikely
US Crude Reserves Below 350M by June 5 Unlikely
Amazon (AMZN) Expected to Reach $288 in May
Canada Tariff Hike by June 30 Unlikely
US-China Tariff Agreement by May 31 Gains Traction
Meta (META) Expected to Drop to $580 in May
WTI Crude Hits $110 This Week Less Likely
Opendoor (OPEN) Expected to Close at $4-5 This Week
Netflix (NFLX) Expected Above $80 This Week
DC Metro Home Values Forecasted for May
WTI Crude Oil Closing Above $96 Today
SPY (SPY) Today's Movement Unclear
WTI Crude Oil Movement Today Expected Up
S&P 500 (SPX) Today's Open Movement Unclear
S&P 500 (SPX) Today's Movement Unclear
Gold (XAUUSD) Today's Movement Expected Down
Fervo Energy IPO Closing Market Cap Forecasted
Natural Gas (NG) Highs Around $2.90 This Week
S&P 500 (SPY) Expected to Hit $740 This Week
Silver (XAGUSD) Today's Movement Expected Up
S&P 500 (SPY) Closing Above $730 Today
Claude-Opus-4-6-Thinking Best AI Model on May 16
Probabilities are experimental and reflect prediction-market consensus, not editorial forecasts.